Thursday, June 11, 2009

False Alarm

By Marian Starkey

The Korea Herald and The Yomiuri Shimbun (Japan) both have editorials today about the perils of low birthrates. According to the Korea Herald, South Korea had the lowest fertility rate in the world last year at 1.19 children per woman. The editors warn that shrinking economic growth and a burdensome elderly population are inevitable.


Contrary to the claims of the Korea Herald, population decline doesn't have to be "scary" for the economy.


In fact, there is a very strong argument that countries like the Republic of Korea have been able to develop quickly because of the fact that family size shrunk from 6.33 children per woman in 1955-1960 to 1.6 in 1985-1990. Couples with fewer children are able to afford higher education for the kid(s) they do have and are able to save more, contributing to individual and nation-wide economic growth.


Couples who claim to be abstaining from having children because of the cost are probably not being entirely truthful in their survey responses. Poor couples the world over have children (often very many children) and find ways to make ends meet. Shocking as it may seem, some people find other activities more rewarding than child rearing and may be using the financial burden as an excuse for not having a baby in the face of social pressure.


Raising the sales tax in Japan to pay for child rearing subsidies (as the editors of Yomiuri suggest) and increasing the "cradle-to-university" subsidies that the South Korean government already provide will not raise birthrates for the right reasons. And they will certainly not solve any impending economic problems due to demographics. Why dump more money into baby incentives when that money could be used to accommodate the aging population that already exists?

Monday, June 8, 2009

Domestic Terror on the Rise

By Stacie Murphy

My heart sank yesterday when I heard the news about the murder of Dr. George Tiller, the Kansas ob-gyn who was one of the country’s few remaining providers of late-term abortion services. I was sick, and I was stunned. But I wasn’t really surprised.

Only a few weeks ago the Department of Homeland Security released a report highlighting an increased risk of domestic terror attacks from right-wing groups. The report specifically mentioned fanatical choice opponents as potential perpetrators. After an outcry from the right, political pressure forced DHS to retract the report and issue an apology. It turns out the agency’s fears were well founded. The alleged shooter appears to have longtime ties to both separatist militia movements and to Operation Rescue, the radical anti-choice group famous for publishing the personal information of abortion providers on its website.

Dr. Tiller was no stranger to these kinds of attacks. He was shot and wounded in 1993, and his clinic had been a target of bombings, vandalism, and other threats for over two decades. In the last month, Dr. Tiller had asked law enforcement for additional security, citing increasing harassment and threats. His constant vigilance and careful security measures were not enough, however. Yesterday morning, a man entered the lobby of the church where Tiller was serving as an usher and shot him dead.

There can be no debate: the murder of George Tiller was a terrorist attack. The aim was not merely to stop Dr. Tiller, but to send a message to other doctors and choice advocates: believe as we do, or die.

Along with every other choice advocate in the country, I am grieving today. I mourn for a man who braved violence, intimidation and threats to stand up for the rights of women in the most vulnerable time in their lives. I sorrow for the wife, four children, and ten grandchildren Dr. Tiller leaves behind. And I am heartbroken to be reminded yet again, and in such a tragic way, that our fight for reproductive autonomy is not over.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Someone Gets It

By John Seager

The Central Chronicle, an English language newspaper in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, hit the population nail on the head with today’s editorial, "Humans biggest threat to environment."


India is slated to pass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2030, according to the latest UN figures.

Feeding a Hungry World

By John Seager

As a growing global population seeks more food, Argentina, long known for its fertile soil and exports of beef and wheat, is struggling just to meet domestic demands. A one-two punch of drought and poor policy choices threatens vital supplies, as outlined in The Economist.


Other reports indicate that Argentina may plant its smallest wheat crop in 100 years (Private Equity Report). In the past, Argentina ranked among the world’s largest wheat exporters.

300 Million Suffer More to Come

By John Seager

The Global Humanitarian Forum, chaired by former UN Secretary-General and Nobel Peace Laureate Kofi Annan, just released The Anatomy of a Crisis. The report concludes that more than 300 million people are already seriously impacted by climate change, and the annual economic cost is $125 billion per year.


By 2030, “worldwide deaths will reach almost 500,000 per year.” The total number of people affected will double, and costs will rise even more rapidly. The most devastating impacts will be felt in the poorest places on earth where there will be a need for vast increases in aid.


I would only add that these are, for the most part, the same places which have the most rapid population growth.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

TED@State

By Marian Starkey


Yesterday, yet another sign of the Obama Administration’s commitment to international diplomacy was presented to an audience of over 500 in Washington, DC at the
TED@State event. Once the seats were filled, people crowded along the staircases and into the back of the auditorium, standing for nearly three hours to hear the experts’ takes on how to proceed effectively with international development.



TED Talks (TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design) has partnered with the Global Partnership Initiative, based at the State Department to form the TED@State series. Since 1984, TED has invited experts on a range of subjects to deliver “the talks of their lives” to audiences around the world in 18 minutes or less. In April of this year, the partnership with State was forged so that new ideas could find their way to professionals and politicians in Washington.


Ambassador Elizabeth Frawley Bagley introduced the event on behalf of Secretary Clinton, who had a last-minute invitation to travel with President Obama to Egypt.


Clay Shirky, author of Here Comes Everybody, spoke about how social media is changing our world and how governments must keep up to avoid embarrassment or worse.


Stewart Brand, author of the Whole Earth Discipline, argued that cities are "green" and full of opportunities lacking in smaller villages. He described the living conditions of squatters, who sometimes live right smack up against the gated communities of the rich. From above, slums might look disorganized and void of services, but actually, there are countless informal businesses and access to cash economies that just doesn’t exist in the rural developing world. The people who move to urban slums are working as hard as they can to climb out of poverty and the infrastructure that they enjoy there, while appalling to the Western eye, is actually far superior to that available in the countryside.


Sometimes counterintuitive to our supporters, Population Connection has long stuck up for cities in terms of their ecological footprint. New York City, where most people do not own cars and instead walk or take mass transit, is a champion of energy efficiency. Apartments are small, walls (and therefore heating and cooling) are shared, and less land is converted to development because buildings are built up instead of out.


Paul Collier, author of The Bottom Billion, also spoke about poverty and how easy it is for families on the verge of escaping poverty to fall back into it because of an event like a health emergency. He continued Brand’s discussion of the eco-friendliness of cities and even called them “population sinks” because they ease demands placed on rural land by subsistence farmers.


While I see the value of populations congregating cities where they can share economies and infrastructure, I took issue with his comment, “Cities diffuse the population bomb.” While moving away from family farms and letting the land lie fallow may restore nutrients to the soil, it does not reduce the total number of people in the country that need to be fed. Someone still has to grow the food for the world’s population, regardless of whether the majority of its inhabitants are rural or urban dwellers. One important point Collier does make though, is that typically urban residents have lower fertility than rural residents and that this demographic trend helps slow population growth. Smaller families probably arise due to a variety of factors, from increased educational and employment opportunities to new ideas about family and society to simple contraceptive access.


Collier also spoke in detail about the problematic youth bulges of failed states and the need to find work for young men who will otherwise fall into crime, terrorism, or despair. Perhaps outside the bounds of his expertise, it nevertheless would have been helpful if he had mentioned population stabilization as a means by which to speed the rise from poverty of urban slum dwellers and slow the growth of the troubling youth bulges in failed states.


Jacqueline Novogratz, founder and leader of the Acumen Fund, spoke about her insightful approach to philanthropy. Acumen addresses poverty from the bottom-up and brings in private investors who can serve a more grassroots population than donor governments, multilateral agencies, or foundations, which typically must focus on the bigger picture.


Finally, Hans Rosling, creator of the Gapminder tool recently purchased by Google, presented different demographic data in his colorful, easy to interpret graphs. He praised the United States government (he’s Swedish) for funding the Demographic and Health Surveys, which are the primary tools we have for tracking social and health indicators over the past 25 years. Rosling gave a longer talk last week at the Woodrow Wilson Center, which was highly entertaining and informative.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Then and Now

By John Seager

If confirmed to the Supreme Court, Judge Sonia Sotomayor will become its first Hispanic member. We’ve seen quite a few “firsts” in recent years, the latest being President Barack Obama. Perhaps one day we’ll run out of firsts.

Almost a century ago, another Democratic President nominated the first Jewish Supreme Court Justice, Louis Brandeis. Like Sotomayor at Princeton, Brandeis was a brilliant student, setting a grade average record at Harvard that stood for eight decades. Like Sotomayor, the Brandeis nomination provoked speculation about the impact on a key voting block. A commentator of the time wrote in The Nation that, “Old-fashioned politicians read in the nomination a bait for the Hebrew vote at the coming election...” And the Brandeis nomination ran into strong opposition from conservative Republicans.

Perhaps the dumbest comment (so far, anyway) about Sotomayor came from Mark Krikorian at National Review Online. Krikorian whined that “there ought to be limits.” He was referring to the pronunciation of Judge Sotomayor’s name (the emphasis is on the last syllable as is common with Hispanic names). This notion of syllabic supremacy may come as a surprise to Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, whose name also emphasizes the final syllable. Like Sotomayor, he hails from New York City. Like Brandeis he is Jewish. Yes, indeed, this can be a darned confusing nation for those who like everyone to line up in one tidy little row.

Brandeis’s name may come up during the confirmation process. In 1890 he coauthored with Samuel D. Warren one of the most enduring law review articles of all time entitled “The Right to Privacy.” It is often viewed as the leading antecedent of the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion. The 1890 article concluded thusly:

The common law has always recognized a man's house as his castle, impregnable, often, even to his own officers engaged in the execution of its command. Shall the courts thus close the front entrance to constituted authority, and open wide the back door to idle or prurient curiosity?

The article begins, interestingly, with assertions about the “right to life,” referring to privacy. Today, that phrase has been appropriated by those who have no real regard for a woman’s right to control her own body. If one’s body is not private, what is?

The battles over privacy and women’s rights are neither new, nor likely to vanish any time soon, if history is any judge.